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1975年《新闻周刊》上的全球变冷文章  

2009-12-17 07:48:05|  分类: 评论 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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首先声明,我在全球变暖的问题上是一个怀疑者而非反对者。人类应该用具体的环境污染治理政策,取代全球变暖这一新型的科学教。我不是说全球变暖不存在(我实在不知道),而是说而今的讨论已经偏离了方向。科学独裁代替了公开探讨。恐吓代替了引导。市场交易代替了行为改变。连全球变暖的一说最大的倡导者James Hansen都说:买卖碳排放指标,就和教廷卖赎罪券一样。

其实,治理污水,清洁能源,个人生活环保,这些方面的举措,更负责任。如果真有全球变暖,这些具体举措也会起到缓解的作用,如此岂不是更好?

在Youtube上看到一段录像链接),发觉很多极端环保人士对全球变暖话题的认识,无非来自媒体,不过媒体也没能在全球变暖还是变冷问题上拿定主意。在《冰还是火》报告中,R. Warren Anderson 和Dan Gainor两位分析家搜集了很多资料,说明过去100年来,新闻界一直在进行气候恐吓,只是不知道到底地球是在变冷还是变暖。

如《纽约时报》的“忽冷忽热”报道:
1975年《新闻周刊》上的全球变冷文章 - 南桥 - 南桥的博客
1924年9月18日:”McMillan汇报说出现了新的冰川记迹象“
1933年3月27日:“美国自从1776年以来出现的最严重的高温袭击,气温记录25年来一直上升”
1975年5月21日:“科学家在思考为什么气候会出现改变。大家普遍认为,严重的全球变冷难以避免。”
2005年12月27日: “过去的炎热时代让人对新出现的全球暖化无法不紧张。”

《时代周刊》也不示弱:
1975年《新闻周刊》上的全球变冷文章 - 南桥 - 南桥的博客

1975年,《新闻周刊》还刊有一篇文章,对“全球变冷”提出了严厉警告,其依据是北半球降雪增加,美国日照减少,英国农业减产等。当时的“共识”是农业会大规模减产( But they are almost unanimous in the view that the trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century),继而出现饥荒等问题,有点像今日的恐吓派论调,如佛罗里达会沉入海底等。

不过当时的科学家比今日科学家诚实一些,说自己不知道成因,甚至连问题的缘起都不清楚( “Our knowledge of the mechanisms of climatic change is at least as fragmentary as our data,” concedes the National Academy of Sciences report. “Not only are the basic scientific questions largely unanswered, but in many cases we do not yet know enough to pose the key questions.” )。现在的科学家说起来都言之凿凿,有板有眼,反倒让人怀疑其中有诈。昨晚我在书店看到《魔鬼经济学》一书的续集《超级魔鬼经济学》,书上的作者说这里的关键是气象学家的模型非常粗糙,另外相关模型只能产生相互类似的结果,如果是产生“异外的模型”(outlying model), 他们会拿不到基金。

希望在这“气候政治”的争论上,大家重新把眼光放到可操作化的具体环境问题上,少谈“全球变暖”这么个大而化之,被一群政客、明星、环保组织、嬉皮士、投机商异化了的运动。

附:《新闻周刊》的《冷却的世界》全文(1975年4月28日):

1975年《新闻周刊》上的全球变冷文章 - 南桥 - 南桥的博客The Cooling World
Newsweek, April 28, 1975


There are ominous signs that the Earth’s weather patterns have begun to change dramatically and that these changes may portend a drastic decline in food production – with serious political implications for just about every nation on Earth. The drop in food output could begin quite soon, perhaps only 10 years from now. The regions destined to feel its impact are the great wheat-producing lands of Canada and the U.S.S.R. in the North, along with a number of marginally self-sufficient tropical areas – parts of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indochina and Indonesia – where the growing season is dependent upon the rains brought by the monsoon.

The evidence in support of these predictions has now begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it. In England, farmers have seen their growing season decline by about two weeks since 1950, with a resultant overall loss in grain production estimated at up to 100,000 tons annually. During the same time, the average temperature around the equator has risen by a fraction of a degree – a fraction that in some areas can mean drought and desolation. Last April, in the most devastating outbreak of tornadoes ever recorded, 148 twisters killed more than 300 people and caused half a billion dollars’ worth of damage in 13 U.S. states.

1975年《新闻周刊》上的全球变冷文章 - 南桥 - 南桥的博客To scientists, these seemingly disparate incidents represent the advance signs of fundamental changes in the world’s weather. The central fact is that after three quarters of a century of extraordinarily mild conditions, the earth’s climate seems to be cooling down. Meteorologists disagree about the cause and extent of the cooling trend, as well as over its specific impact on local weather conditions. But they are almost unanimous in the view that the trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century. If the climatic change is as profound as some of the pessimists fear, the resulting famines could be catastrophic. “A major climatic change would force economic and social adjustments on a worldwide scale,” warns a recent report by the National Academy of Sciences, “because the global patterns of food production and population that have evolved are implicitly dependent on the climate of the present century.”

A survey completed last year by Dr. Murray Mitchell of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reveals a drop of half a degree in average ground temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere between 1945 and 1968. According to George Kukla of Columbia University, satellite photos indicated a sudden, large increase in Northern Hemisphere snow cover in the winter of 1971-72. And a study released last month by two NOAA scientists notes that the amount of sunshine reaching the ground in the continental U.S. diminished by 1.3% between 1964 and 1972.

To the layman, the relatively small changes in temperature and sunshine can be highly misleading. Reid Bryson of the University of Wisconsin points out that the Earth’s average temperature during the great Ice Ages was only about seven degrees lower than during its warmest eras – and that the present decline has taken the planet about a sixth of the way toward the Ice Age average. Others regard the cooling as a reversion to the “little ice age” conditions that brought bitter winters to much of Europe and northern America between 1600 and 1900 – years when the Thames used to freeze so solidly that Londoners roasted oxen on the ice and when iceboats sailed the Hudson River almost as far south as New York City.

Just what causes the onset of major and minor ice ages remains a mystery. “Our knowledge of the mechanisms of climatic change is at least as fragmentary as our data,” concedes the National Academy of Sciences report. “Not only are the basic scientific questions largely unanswered, but in many cases we do not yet know enough to pose the key questions.”

Meteorologists think that they can forecast the short-term results of the return to the norm of the last century. They begin by noting the slight drop in overall temperature that produces large numbers of pressure centers in the upper atmosphere. These break up the smooth flow of westerly winds over temperate areas. The stagnant air produced in this way causes an increase in extremes of local weather such as droughts, floods, extended dry spells, long freezes, delayed monsoons and even local temperature increases – all of which have a direct impact on food supplies.

“The world’s food-producing system,” warns Dr. James D. McQuigg of NOAA’s Center for Climatic and Environmental Assessment, “is much more sensitive to the weather variable than it was even five years ago.” Furthermore, the growth of world population and creation of new national boundaries make it impossible for starving peoples to migrate from their devastated fields, as they did during past famines.

Climatologists are pessimistic that political leaders will take any positive action to compensate for the climatic change, or even to allay its effects. They concede that some of the more spectacular solutions proposed, such as melting the Arctic ice cap by covering it with black soot or diverting arctic rivers, might create problems far greater than those they solve. But the scientists see few signs that government leaders anywhere are even prepared to take the simple measures of stockpiling food or of introducing the variables of climatic uncertainty into economic projections of future food supplies. The longer the planners delay, the more difficult will they find it to cope with climatic change once the results become grim reality.

PETER GWYNNE with bureau reports

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